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分散投资≠万能药,多元配置可能藏着哪些“暗礁”?
天天基金网·2025-05-30 11:13

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation as a strategy to navigate economic cycles and mitigate risks associated with market volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Theoretical Foundation of Diversified Asset Allocation - The theoretical basis for diversified asset allocation is rooted in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which suggests that diversification can reduce portfolio risk while optimizing long-term returns [2]. - The value of diversified allocation is primarily reflected in its ability to hedge market risks through low correlations among different asset classes [3][4]. Group 2: Benefits of Diversified Asset Allocation - Low correlation among assets can provide protection against market downturns; for instance, the correlation coefficient between the stock market (Wande All A Index) and bonds (China Bond - Total Wealth Index) is -0.10 [2]. - Cross-regional diversification can help mitigate systemic risks associated with a single market; historical data shows a low correlation of 0.12 between the S&P 500 and A-shares [6]. - Diversified asset allocation allows for a more measured response to declining interest rates and asset scarcity, making it a necessary choice for enhancing returns [8]. - The strategy aims to adapt to different economic cycles, with asset performance varying across recovery, expansion, stagflation, and recession phases [9][12]. Group 3: Limitations of Diversified Asset Allocation - Over-diversification may reduce the portfolio's performance during bull markets; for example, a pure equity portfolio had an annualized return of 35.53% during the A-share bull market from 2019 to 2020, compared to 25% for a balanced portfolio [13][14]. - Extreme market conditions can lead to a sudden increase in asset correlations, causing diversification to fail; during the initial outbreak of COVID-19, gold also experienced a temporary decline [13][14]. - Traditional asset allocation models heavily rely on historical data, which may become ineffective due to changing market structures; for instance, the aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a rare double hit for the traditional 60/40 portfolio [15].