券商中国·2025-05-30 15:33Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on trade data, inflation indicators, and market reactions, highlighting a notable decline in import values and changes in consumer spending patterns [1][2][3][4]. Trade Data Summary - In April, U.S. goods imports fell from $344.47 billion in March to $276.10 billion, marking a record decline of 19.8% [2][3]. - The trade deficit narrowed to $87.6 billion in April, significantly better than the expected $143 billion and down from $163.2 billion in the previous month [3]. Inflation Indicators Summary - The core PCE price index rose by 2.5% year-on-year in April, the smallest increase in over four years, aligning with expectations [3][4]. - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.2% [4]. Consumer Spending and Income Summary - Real personal spending grew by only 0.1% in April, a significant slowdown compared to a 0.7% increase in March [4][5]. - Personal income increased by 0.8%, the largest gain since January 2024, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% [5]. Market Reactions Summary - Following the release of macroeconomic data, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.1% while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw slight declines [6]. - There was a notable outflow of $9.5 billion from global equities, marking the largest weekly net outflow of the year [6]. Currency and Investment Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that the dollar is entering a bear market due to ineffective tariff policies and increasing U.S. debt, which may lead to a shift in investment towards emerging markets and gold [7].