日本超长期国债在成为全球债市的震源地

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market has become the starting point for the rise in global ultra-long-term interest rates, with increasing interconnectivity between domestic and international rates being a significant factor [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds reached a record high of 3.135% during the auction on May 28, marking the highest since the auction's inception in November 2007 [3]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.21, indicating weak demand and the lowest level since July 2024 [3]. - The yield on newly issued 40-year bonds peaked at 3.675% on May 22, which is 1% higher than the end of 2024, reflecting a rapid increase in market rates [4]. Group 2: Global Impact - The instability in Japan's ultra-long-term bonds has led to fluctuations in the global bond market, with U.S. 30-year bond yields also rising to 5.1% on May 22, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - The heightened interconnectivity of domestic and international rates has made the Japanese market more susceptible to global events, particularly those originating from the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The shift in major buyers of Japanese ultra-long-term bonds to overseas investors has contributed to the increased global market interconnectivity [5]. - Market participants are cautious, as many investors engage in strategic buying and selling during periods of volatility, making it difficult to predict market reversals [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The feasibility of reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds remains uncertain, with expectations of a potential decrease in supply that could lead to lower rates if confirmed [6]. - The upcoming auction of 30-year bonds on June 5 is critical, as disappointing results could lead to renewed market instability [6]. Group 5: Stock Market Reactions - The volatility in the bond market has begun to affect the stock market, with significant fluctuations in the Nikkei average on May 28 due to interest rate changes [7]. - The sensitivity of the stock market to bond market fluctuations raises concerns about overall market stability [7].