Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant movements in the global bond market and a surge in safe-haven assets like gold, indicating a reshaping of financial market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff threat on May 23, the German bond market reacted sharply, with short-term rates rising due to inflation concerns while long-term rates fell, signaling increased recession risks [4][5]. - The yield curve exhibited a "bear flattening" pattern, with the two-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 1.782%, while the 30-year yield dropped by 2.3 basis points to 3.065% [4][3]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold prices surged by 2.1% to $3362.70 per ounce, reaching a six-week high, while the US dollar index fell by 0.83%, reflecting a loss of confidence in US policies [6][7]. - The movements in the bond market and precious metals serve as indicators of capital flows amid trade conflicts [7]. Group 3: EU Countermeasures - The EU's countermeasures include a targeted list of $21 billion in tariffs, focusing on agricultural products that impact key Republican states, while avoiding escalation by removing whiskey tariffs [9]. - Potential retaliatory measures from the EU could disrupt corporate bond issuance and increase credit spread volatility [11]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The article highlights that if the tariff conflict persists until 2028, Germany could face cumulative losses of €250 billion, with the bond market already pricing in these risks [18]. - The risk premium on German bonds has increased by 3-5 basis points, and if negotiations break down before July 9, this premium could potentially double [18].
50%关税威胁下，债市暗流涌动！——打开新浪财经APP，全球债市波动一触即知
新浪财经·2025-06-02 00:56