六一档“遗憾”复盘：票房小爆，但谷子不行

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Dragon Boat Festival box office performance has shown a significant recovery in the film market, with total box office revenue reaching 448 million yuan and 11.45 million viewers, surpassing the same period last year, indicating a positive trend for the upcoming summer season [4][5][6]. Group 1: Box Office Performance - The 2025 Dragon Boat Festival box office reached 448 million yuan, with 11.45 million viewers, marking a substantial increase compared to previous years [4][5]. - The top film during this period was "Mission: Impossible 8," which grossed 180 million yuan, leading the box office and contributing to the overall positive performance [6][14]. - The 2023 Dragon Boat Festival had the highest performance in recent years, with a box office of 911 million yuan, largely driven by the blockbuster "The Missing Her" [12][14]. Group 2: Market Trends - The Dragon Boat Festival has evolved into a unique period with two distinct characteristics: a short duration and an unpredictable date, making it a recognized small box office period in the industry [11]. - The combination of the Dragon Boat Festival and Children's Day this year has created a new opportunity for box office growth, with the market surpassing 200 million yuan on June 1, marking the best Children's Day performance since 2020 [17]. - The current film market is experiencing a shortage of strong films, with many new releases failing to generate significant box office revenue, indicating a potential ongoing issue for the industry [19][34]. Group 3: Import and IP Economy - The return of imported films to the top position in the Dragon Boat Festival box office, with "Mission: Impossible 8" leading, marks a shift from recent years where domestic films dominated this period [14]. - The analysis of the film market should now incorporate the "goods" economy, as seen with the success of the "Stitch" IP, which has generated significant revenue through merchandise sales alongside its film release [9][28]. - The "Doraemon" franchise continues to perform steadily in the box office, with its films consistently generating between 100 million to 200 million yuan, highlighting the importance of IP in the current market [30]. Group 4: Upcoming Summer Season - The summer season is expected to be challenging, with a significant drop in box office revenue from the previous year, indicating a cautious outlook for the upcoming films [36][42]. - The current film slate for June is heavily dominated by imported films, with few domestic blockbusters scheduled, suggesting that imported films will play a major role in the summer box office [37][39]. - The success of the summer season will largely depend on the potential release of strong domestic films, as the current lineup appears insufficient to match last year's performance [44][47].