华尔街“闻30年期美债色变”

Core Viewpoint - Major institutional investors in the U.S. bond market, such as DoubleLine Capital, are either avoiding or shorting 30-year U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over rising government budget deficits and debt burdens [2][6][7] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries reached 5.15%, nearing the highest level since 2007, driven by fears of increased bond issuance to cover deficits [3][5] - The yield curve has steepened significantly this year, with the 30-year yield rising sharply while shorter-term yields have declined [2][3] - The difference between the 30-year and 5-year yields has exceeded 100 basis points for the first time since 2021, indicating pressure on long-term bonds [3][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are shifting their focus from long-term to shorter-term bonds, favoring those with lower interest rate risk but still offering decent returns [2][6] - Pimco and other firms are advocating for a cautious stance on 30-year Treasuries, preferring the 5-year and 10-year segments of the yield curve [6][7] - There is speculation about the U.S. Treasury potentially reducing or halting the auction of long-term bonds due to weak demand [5][7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming 30-year Treasury auction on June 12 is anticipated to be a critical test for market confidence in long-term bonds [9] - Recent weak demand for long-term bonds in both the U.S. and Japan has raised concerns about the sustainability of long-term bond issuance [9]