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流动性大幅好转,战配解禁还会带头砸盘吗?
北证三板研习社·2025-06-03 12:23

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of liquidity improvements on the secondary market, particularly focusing on the effects of lock-up expirations on stock prices in the context of the North Exchange market. Group 1: Market Liquidity and Trading Volume - The North Exchange market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with daily transaction amounts often exceeding 20 billion yuan, indicating a capacity to absorb larger capital shocks [1]. - The liquidity improvement has changed the dynamics of how lock-up expirations affect stock prices, suggesting that traditional views may no longer apply [1]. Group 2: Pre-Expiration Stock Performance - During the period from March to August 2024, 33 companies experienced lock-up expirations, with 21 of them (63.64%) showing a greater decline than the North Exchange 50 index in the five trading days leading up to the expiration [2]. - The average decline of these companies was 1% more than the index, indicating weaker performance as the expiration date approached [2]. Group 3: Post-Expiration Stock Performance - After the expiration, only 15 out of the 33 companies (45%) had declines greater than the index in the subsequent five days, which is below 50% [2]. - The average decline for these companies post-expiration was 1.14%, which was less than the index's average decline of 1.36%, suggesting that the secondary market did not experience significant pressure following the expirations [2]. Group 4: Recent Market Conditions - In October 2024, with improved liquidity, 21 companies had 76% of them underperforming the index in the five days leading up to their expirations, with an average decline of 0.008% compared to a 6.27% increase in the index [3]. - Post-expiration, only 8 of the 21 companies underperformed the index, with an average return of 8.47%, outperforming the index's average return of 7.22% [3]. - This indicates that regardless of market liquidity levels, the pressure from lock-up expirations primarily occurs before the expiration date, with minimal impact afterward [3].