凌晨！美联储，重磅发布！

Economic Outlook - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, highlighting the broad impact of tariffs and high uncertainty on the economy [1][3][4] - The overall economic outlook is described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain," consistent with the previous Beige Book [7] Employment Trends - Most regions reported stable employment conditions, with seven districts describing employment as "flat" and an increase in job seekers while employee turnover rates decreased [4] - There is a noted decline in labor demand across all districts, including reduced working hours, hiring freezes, and planned layoffs in certain sectors [4] Inflation and Pricing - Prices in the U.S. are rising at a moderate pace, with widespread reports indicating expectations for faster cost and price increases in the future [5] - Companies are planning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers within three months, although there are differing views on how to manage price increases [5] Market Reactions - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below the expected 52, indicating a contraction in demand for the first time in nearly a year [8][9] - The new orders index dropped sharply by 5.9 points to 46.4, the largest decline since June 2024, while the prices paid index surged to 68.7, the highest since November 2022 [10] Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - Traders are increasingly hedging against the risk of significant changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with expectations ranging from no rate cuts to multiple cuts of 50 basis points by 2025 [10][11] - The market reflects a divided outlook on when the Fed will begin to ease policies, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup holding differing views on the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [10]