罗志恒：“十五五”时期中国财政政策展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a transformation and optimization of China's active fiscal policy after 17 years of implementation, highlighting its effectiveness in promoting economic stability, quality growth, and social welfare, while also addressing existing shortcomings and future directions for fiscal policy [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 2 - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining economic stability with an average growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%, and a growth rate of 4.7% from 2020 to 2023, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% [3][4]. - The policy has shifted focus towards technology innovation and green development, enhancing the potential for long-term high-quality economic growth [4]. - Social welfare has improved, with rural minimum living standards increasing by 73.3% and urban low-income standards by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023, while the share of public budget for social welfare rose from 35.1% in 2013 to 40.7% in 2023 [5]. Group 3 - Current fiscal policy faces challenges, including an overemphasis on short-term fiscal balance, which may hinder long-term economic stability and increase hidden government debt risks [8][9]. - The effectiveness of large-scale tax reductions is diminishing, with the macro tax burden decreasing to 16.3% of GDP in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013, which may threaten fiscal sustainability [12]. - The structure of fiscal spending needs optimization, as there is a tendency to focus more on supply-side and enterprise support rather than on demand and household needs [13][24]. Group 4 - Future fiscal policy should transition from a balanced approach to a functional one, allowing for a potential breach of the 3% deficit limit to better support economic stability and growth [16][17]. - Systematic responses to long-term challenges such as aging population and digital economy risks are necessary, including enhancing social security systems and adapting tax policies to new economic realities [18][20]. - The focus should shift from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing direct government spending to stimulate demand and support households [22][25]. Group 5 - The article suggests that the term "active fiscal policy" should be reconsidered to "expansionary fiscal policy" to better convey the intended signals to the market and stabilize expectations [26][27].