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世界怎么就「东升西落」了?聊聊二级市场与 DeepSeek+Manus 的热潮 | 42章经
42章经·2025-03-30 22:25

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative of "East Rising, West Falling," highlighting the contrasting developments in the U.S. and China, particularly in the AI sector, and the implications for investment opportunities and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. market has seen a shift in focus from AI to macroeconomic issues due to changes in government policies, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [3][20]. - In contrast, the Chinese market has experienced a resurgence in stock prices since 2024, driven by renewed optimism in the tech sector, particularly AI [5][6]. - The release of DeepSeek has significantly impacted market expectations, with investors now viewing Chinese AI companies more favorably, marking a transition from negative to positive sentiment [24][25]. Group 2: AI Development Focus - The U.S. narrative around AI has been centered on scaling laws and achieving AGI, while China emphasizes practical applications and cost efficiency, as exemplified by DeepSeek's success [8][9][10]. - Manus, another AI product, illustrates the different approaches in the U.S. and China, focusing on user accessibility rather than AGI aspirations [11][12][17]. - The rapid growth of AI products in China reflects a broader trend of "pulse-like" growth, where new applications quickly gain traction among users [14][15][16]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Investors are currently more focused on the potential of AI to drive economic recovery and job creation in China, rather than solely on technological advancements [23][38]. - The performance of major Chinese tech companies, such as Alibaba and Tencent, is being closely monitored as they increase their investments in AI, indicating a shift in market expectations [24][26]. - The article suggests that the current investment climate in China resembles the U.S. market in early 2023, where large companies are expected to lead AI advancements [29][30]. Group 4: Macro and Industry Trends - The macroeconomic environment in China has improved, with consumer confidence rising and new technological breakthroughs like DeepSeek contributing to a more optimistic outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that various sectors, including energy storage and specialized manufacturing, are experiencing cyclical recoveries, further supporting the "East Rising" narrative [37]. - The discussion emphasizes the importance of addressing underlying economic issues, such as debt and consumption, to sustain growth in the long term [39][40].