特朗普“致命药方”，恐将亲手埋葬美元霸权

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warns that the "Big and Beautiful" plan promoted by the Trump administration is pushing the U.S. towards a fiscal cliff, potentially undermining the dollar's dominance and reshaping the global economic order [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Implications - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the plan will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, but Summers' dynamic modeling suggests the actual debt increase could exceed $4 trillion when accounting for temporary tax measure extensions and interest effects [1] - Annual fiscal deficit rates are projected to exceed 7% of GDP, surpassing the dangerous threshold of 6% observed in recent years [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The aging population is expected to increase welfare spending significantly, with Social Security funds projected to be depleted by 2029 [1] - Government healthcare spending is growing at twice the rate of economic growth, potentially reaching 20% of GDP by 2025 [1] - Rising interest rates, with 30-year U.S. Treasury yields exceeding 5%, have led to debt servicing costs surpassing military expenditures [1] Group 3: Global Economic Concerns - As the largest debtor nation, the U.S. faces a monetary dilemma of maintaining the dollar's reserve status while issuing massive amounts of debt to cover deficits [2] - If U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion, international confidence in the dollar may falter, leading to rapid selling of U.S. bonds by central banks [2] - The Trump economic team believes a 3.5% GDP growth rate combined with 10% tariff revenue can resolve the debt crisis, but models indicate that tariffs could raise core PCE inflation by 1.2 percentage points [2] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Summers supports the proposal to eliminate the debt ceiling but emphasizes that restoring fiscal discipline requires tax reform, including closing loopholes for multinational corporations and implementing a digital services tax [2] - The upcoming Senate vote on the plan has prompted global central banks to initiate emergency measures, indicating the high stakes involved in maintaining dollar supremacy [2]