券商中国·2025-06-07 23:24Core Viewpoint - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, anticipating that trade competitiveness will support a stronger RMB in the long term [1][2]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, has raised the 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points, citing resilient service sector output and retail performance, along with a more proactive policy stance to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3]. - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its economic growth forecasts for China, increasing the growth estimates for the next two years by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, due to reduced urgency for new policies following external shocks [3][4]. - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for China's second quarter from 3.7% to 4.8% and increased the annual GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting positive developments in US-China trade talks [3]. Currency Outlook - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB will strengthen against the USD, forecasting an exchange rate of 7.0 by the end of 2025 and 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by improved trade competitiveness [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley also expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB, noting that the RMB depreciated by 11.5% during the 2018-2019 US-China tariff increases, which partially offset the tariff impacts [5][6]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, focusing instead on reserve requirement ratio cuts and liquidity support [7]. - Morgan Stanley expects the government to potentially introduce an additional fiscal stimulus of 500 to 1,000 billion RMB to support infrastructure investments, alongside further interest rate cuts [7].