暴跌的榴莲

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in durian prices this summer is primarily driven by supply-demand dynamics and quality issues in the market [4][22]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - From May 2023, the national wholesale average price of durian fell to 51.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 25.8% from April's average of 69.26 yuan/kg [4]. - The expected increase in supply from Thailand and Vietnam, with Thailand's production projected to rise by 30% to 1.5 million tons and Vietnam's at 850,000 tons, is set to exceed China's total import volume of approximately 1.56 million tons for 2024 [7]. - The trade facilitation benefits from the ongoing negotiations of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 have lowered market entry barriers and improved logistics efficiency, reducing transportation losses by about 20% [9]. Quality Issues - There has been a notable decline in the quality of imported durians, with a high incidence of "raw packages" (durians appearing ripe but lacking flavor) reported this year [14][16]. - The overlap of the harvest season with the rainy season in Thailand has adversely affected the sugar accumulation and ripeness of the durians [16]. - The market is experiencing a severe polarization in quality, with low-quality durians flooding the market at reduced prices, while high-quality durians remain scarce and maintain higher prices [20][22]. Impact on Retail and Consumer Behavior - The price drop has significantly impacted the profit margins of retailers, with some reporting a near halving of profits due to the need to adjust prices in line with market trends [25][27]. - The decline in consumer confidence regarding the quality of high-end fruits has led to a reduction in demand, as consumers are now more cautious about spending on premium products [28]. - Retailers are adapting by focusing on quality control, directly sourcing from reputable suppliers, and diversifying their product offerings to mitigate risks associated with high-end fruit sales [29][31].