日本水产品对中国出口还能回到从前吗？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's seafood industry is optimistic about the resumption of exports to China, but local fishermen express concerns due to the established new export channels and rising prices in the global market [1][3]. Group 1: Resumption of Trade - In late May, China and Japan reached an agreement on the conditions for resuming seafood trade, following China's suspension of imports due to the Fukushima nuclear water discharge [3]. - Japan's fisheries representatives view the agreement as a significant step forward, while some fishermen remain skeptical due to previous disruptions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - During the import suspension, Japan's scallop exports diversified, leading to a doubling of wholesale prices, reaching 5,500 yen per kilogram, which is approximately 276.5 RMB [4]. - The price of farmed yellowtail increased from 900 yen to 1,500 yen per kilogram, and farmed salmon prices rose by 20% during the same period [4][5]. Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - The Japanese seafood market has undergone structural changes during the import ban, making it uncertain whether previous trade channels can be quickly reestablished [4]. - Concerns are raised about the potential impact of increased Chinese demand on domestic supply, as Japan's fisheries face a decline in production, projected to drop by 5% in 2024 [5][6].