30年才能回本，在东京圈买房不划算了?

Core Viewpoint - The housing price-to-earnings ratio (PER) in the Tokyo metropolitan area has reached approximately 30 times by 2024, marking a historical high and indicating that residential properties are becoming less attractive as investment options [1][3]. Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The PER for new homes in the Tokyo area has increased to 28.93 times, up from 26 times the previous year, surpassing major real estate stocks like Mitsubishi Estate (18.3 times) [3][4]. - The average rent for newly sold homes in the Tokyo area has increased by 3.2% year-on-year, while the average price has surged by 17.7%, exceeding 100 million yen for the first time [4][5]. - The PER for second-hand homes in the Tokyo area is 28.87 times, nearly equal to that of new homes, indicating a rising trend in the second-hand housing market [6]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - The PER serves as a measure for evaluating the initial investment recovery period in housing, with a rising PER suggesting declining attractiveness for housing investments [4][7]. - In high-demand areas like Platinum Takane, the PER reaches 53.07 times, indicating a recovery period exceeding 24 years compared to the average [5][7]. - The current rental yield, calculated as rent divided by housing price, stands at 1.88%, lower than the 20-year Japanese government bond yield of approximately 2.2% [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The increase in new home prices is driven by strong demand from both local and foreign investors, as well as affluent domestic buyers [5]. - The phenomenon of second-hand homes having a higher PER than new homes is emerging in certain areas, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. - Experts suggest that a correction in housing PER is inevitable, but due to rising living costs, future rent increases may be limited, potentially leading to a decline in new home prices [7].