新消费股大抱团，谁是下一个？

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant adjustments in the new consumption sector, particularly among leading companies, indicate a potential shift in market dynamics, questioning whether this is the beginning of a breakdown in the "hugging" phenomenon or merely a pause in the upward trend [4][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics and Policy Drivers - The new consumption trend began in March 2023, with various sectors like jewelry, cosmetics, and pet products experiencing substantial growth, leading to a phenomenon of extreme market "hugging" [3][4]. - Recent high-level declines in leading new consumption stocks suggest a potential unraveling of this "hugging" phenomenon, driven by changing market expectations and macroeconomic policies [4][14]. - The Chinese government's shift in policy focus from investment to consumption is a significant driver, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics and Sector Analysis - In the pet sector, companies like Zhongchong and Guibao have shown impressive revenue growth rates of 18.9% and 27% respectively from 2020 to 2024, with net profit growth rates of 30.7% and 54% [6]. - In the jewelry sector, Laopu Gold reported a staggering revenue and net profit growth of 166% and 254% respectively in 2024, while Chaohongji saw a year-on-year growth of 25.4% and 44.4% in Q1 [6][7]. - The overall jewelry sector had been undervalued for years, which contributed to the recent price surges [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation Concerns - The recent decline in new consumption stocks is partly attributed to the market's adjustment to high valuations, with Laopu Gold's PE ratio exceeding 100 times and Chaohongji's surpassing 50 times [14][16]. - The market's enthusiasm for new consumption stocks has led to inflated valuations, raising concerns about sustainability and potential corrections [16][17]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The potential for a shift towards technology sectors is highlighted, driven by upcoming tariff negotiations and significant corporate mergers in the tech space [18][19]. - The upcoming Shanghai Lujiazui Forum may introduce financial policies that could positively impact technology stocks, suggesting a possible transition in market focus [19][20]. - Despite the potential for a rebound in technology stocks, caution is advised due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures and reduced expectations for overall market performance [20][21].