中美第二轮谈判没大悬念？关键在“稀土牌”怎么打

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of rare earth elements in various industries, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States, highlighting China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain and its implications for global markets [1][49][52]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The first meeting of the China-US economic consultation mechanism took place in London, focusing on unresolved issues from previous negotiations [2][3][4]. - Following the Geneva talks, both countries are transitioning from a tariff war to a supply chain conflict, with the US restricting chip exports and China controlling rare earth supplies [6][7]. Group 2: Rare Earth Market Impact - China's rare earth exports saw a significant decline, with April's exports dropping by 43% year-on-year, particularly affecting the US and South Korea [7][8]. - The US automotive industry is facing production risks due to a shortage of rare earth magnets, with Ford halting production of its Explorer SUV [14][15]. Group 3: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements, comprising 17 metals, are essential in various applications, enhancing the performance of materials like steel and glass [20]. - The US military's reliance on rare earths is highlighted, with significant quantities required for advanced weaponry, indicating a potential production slowdown if supplies are disrupted [15][20]. Group 4: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds approximately 33.8% of the world's rare earth reserves and controls 65% of global production capacity, particularly in high-value heavy rare earths [21][22][28]. - The country has developed a complete rare earth refining industry, dominating 92% of the global market share, making it difficult for other nations to independently process rare earths [30][31]. Group 5: Export Control Measures - China has implemented an export licensing system for rare earths, similar to the US's semiconductor export controls, which has led to a surge in global applications for licenses [32][33]. - Historical precedents, such as the 2010 China-Japan rare earth dispute, demonstrate China's ability to influence global prices and supply through export restrictions [33]. Group 6: Challenges for the US - The US has initiated efforts to diversify its rare earth supply sources, including agreements with Ukraine and partnerships with Australian companies, but faces significant challenges in meeting its heavy rare earth needs [36][38]. - The Mountain Pass mine in California, while operational, primarily produces light rare earths and still relies on China for processing, highlighting the limitations of US domestic production capabilities [38][39]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The article suggests that despite US investments in rare earth supply chains, achieving self-sufficiency will require substantial financial resources and time, with estimates ranging from $10 billion to $15 billion and a decade of development [45][46]. - China's strategic control over rare earths positions it as a key player in global supply chains, particularly as negotiations with the US unfold [52].