突变！美联储，重磅发布！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant decline in U.S. consumer inflation expectations, indicating improved consumer confidence and potential implications for monetary policy and trade relations [2][4]. Summary by Sections Inflation Expectations - In May, U.S. consumers' inflation expectations for the next year, three years, and five years all decreased for the first time in 2024. The one-year inflation expectation dropped from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May, while the three-year expectation fell from 3.2% to 3.0%. The five-year expectation decreased from 2.7% to 2.6% [2][4]. Consumer Sentiment - The survey indicates a broad improvement in consumer sentiment regarding future price pressures, with most categories showing a decline in inflation expectations. However, food prices are an exception, with expectations for a 5.5% increase over the next year, the highest level since October 2023 [4][5]. Employment and Personal Finance - There was a slight improvement in perceptions of employment prospects, with expectations for job loss probabilities decreasing by 0.5 percentage points. The proportion of respondents expecting their financial situation to worsen in a year also declined [6]. Stock Market Outlook - Respondents expressed a higher average probability of U.S. stock market gains over the next 12 months, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the equity market [7]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Analysts suggest that the New York Fed's survey results provide positive signals for the White House, alleviating concerns about tariffs leading to inflation. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting, with a 99.9% probability of no change in June [9][10]. Employment Market Trends - The unemployment rate has shown a slight increase from January to May, with job vacancy rates returning to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a continued softening in the employment market [10].