申万宏源傅静涛：本轮潜在牛市更可能演绎成“中国版慢牛”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current potential bull market in A-shares is more likely to evolve into a "Chinese-style slow bull" rather than a rapid surge [2][3] - The bull market is expected to primarily occur between 2026 and 2027, with the market center likely to rise in the fourth quarter of 2025 [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a weak but prolonged improvement in fundamentals, allowing for a more optimistic outlook to develop over time [3] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities predicts that the short-term market will primarily experience steady oscillations upward, supported by a relaxed monetary policy following recent rate cuts [4][5] - The market is expected to remain in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with key observations on policy changes anticipated in late July and September [7][8] - Financial policies are expected to continue supporting high-quality economic development, with the market's upward momentum likely to persist until late June [6][8] Group 3 - Citic Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again in September, following a trend of softening in the U.S. job market [9][10] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of continued weakness, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and limited "buffer" for job vacancies [10]