国芯网·2025-06-10 10:42Core Viewpoint - The global wafer foundry industry is experiencing a seasonal revenue decline of approximately 5.4%, reaching $36.4 billion in Q1 2025, influenced by the U.S. tariff policy and China's old-for-new subsidy program [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - According to TrendForce, the global wafer foundry industry is expected to see a revenue decrease of about 5.4% in Q1 2025, totaling $36.4 billion, due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the advance stocking effect before the expiration of tariff exemptions [1]. - The overall industry revenue is being supported by China's continuation of the old-for-new subsidy policy, which mitigates some seasonal impacts [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC maintains the top position with a market share of 67.6%, reporting a revenue of $25.5 billion, a 5% decrease due to the smartphone inventory seasonality, partially offset by stable AI HPC demand and urgent orders from television manufacturers [4]. - Samsung, ranked second, faced an 11.3% revenue decline to $2.89 billion, with a market share slightly decreasing to 7.7%, affected by U.S. advanced process restrictions on Chinese customers [4]. - SMIC, in third place, benefited from customers' advance stocking due to U.S. tariffs and China's subsidy policy, resulting in a 1.8% revenue increase to $2.25 billion [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - TrendForce anticipates that as the advance stocking driven by tariffs concludes, overall momentum will gradually slow down. However, the continuation of China's old-for-new subsidy policy, along with the upcoming smartphone launches and stable AI HPC demand, is expected to drive capacity utilization and shipments in Q2 [5]. - The top ten wafer foundry companies are projected to see a revenue increase in Q2 [5].