【首席观察】动荡金融世界的稳定币棋局

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of a regulatory year for stablecoins is driven by the geopolitical dynamics of national power, currency status, and financial sovereignty rather than mere technological innovation [3]. Regulatory Developments - The U.S. has introduced the "GENIUS Act," integrating dollar stablecoins into a digital dollar framework, while the EU has established compliance thresholds through the MiCA regulation, and Hong Kong has enacted a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins [2][9]. - The U.S. Senate passed the "GENIUS Act" with a vote of 66 to 32, mandating that non-U.S. issuers demonstrate regulatory comparability to access the U.S. market, potentially reshaping global financial order [7][8]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, the total transaction volume of stablecoins reached $27.6 trillion, surpassing the annual transaction volumes of Visa and Mastercard, indicating a significant shift in financial transactions [10]. - The combined market capitalization of USDT and USDC exceeds $210 billion, representing 86% of the global stablecoin market [10]. Financial Implications - Stablecoins are evolving into a form of "shadow Federal Reserve," influencing U.S. Treasury yields through high-frequency circulation and liquidity [11][12]. - Research indicates that a 2% fluctuation in daily trading of USDT/USDC can lead to a 2.5 basis point change in three-month Treasury yields, suggesting a micro-quantitative easing effect [19]. Hong Kong's Role - Hong Kong is positioned as a financial hub for offshore RMB, rapidly establishing a legal framework for stablecoins, which may accelerate the internationalization of the RMB [15][20]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has initiated the "Project Ensemble" to explore cross-border tokenized settlement mechanisms, enhancing efficiency and transparency in cross-border transactions [16]. Historical Context - The successful pilot of personal RMB accounts in Hong Kong in 2003 laid the groundwork for the cross-border trade settlement of RMB in 2009, providing a model for the current stablecoin initiatives [21][23]. - The upcoming stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong may serve as a "laboratory" for the future internationalization of the digital RMB, reflecting a new version of the "Hong Kong experience" [24].