“债牛”再来？多家机构最新研判→

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a strong rebound following the central bank's 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with significant increases in long-term government bond futures [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 11, the 30-year government bond futures closed at 120.44 yuan, nearing the historical high from earlier this year, while 10-year and 5-year bond futures also experienced gains [3]. - The yields on major interbank bonds have declined across the board, with the 30-year bond yield down by 1.5 basis points to 1.8540%, and the 10-year bond yield down by 1.2 basis points to 1.6455% [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On June 5, the central bank announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [3][4]. - The change in the announcement format by the central bank aims to enhance transparency and alleviate market concerns regarding liquidity pressure during the quarter-end [4]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the bond market will maintain a volatile trend in the second half of the year, with various influencing factors complicating market dynamics [6]. - The core conflict in the bond market is expected to arise from the interplay of multiple variables, with a projected range for the 10-year government bond yield between 1.5% and 1.8% [7].