材料汇·2025-06-11 14:30Core Viewpoint - The tungsten industry is characterized by a significant supply-demand gap, with expectations of a global shortage increasing from 13,000 tons in 2023 to 18,000 tons by 2027, indicating a systemic rise in tungsten prices due to its strategic importance and scarcity [2][3]. Industry Overview - Tungsten is a globally important strategic resource known for its high hardness, melting point, and resistance to high temperatures and corrosion, making it essential in various sectors including transportation, mining, industrial manufacturing, and military applications [7][9]. - The global tungsten reserves are concentrated, with China holding over 50% of the total tungsten resources and production, making it a key player in the tungsten market [14][19]. Driving Factors - The rarity of tungsten resources and continuous innovation in mining technology are crucial for the industry's growth, with global tungsten reserves increasing from approximately 3.3 million tons in 2018 to 4.4 million tons in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% [14]. - Demand for tungsten from downstream industries is on the rise, particularly in aerospace, military, and photovoltaic sectors, with projections indicating that global tungsten consumption could reach approximately 151,100 tons by 2028 [15]. - Technological advancements in mining and smelting processes are enhancing the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of tungsten extraction, making the market more attractive to investors [16][17]. Supply-Demand Structure - The supply of tungsten remains rigid, with China accounting for 52.5% of global tungsten reserves and 82.3% of production in 2024, despite a gradual decline in the quality of tungsten ore due to extensive mining [19][21]. - The Chinese government implements strict controls on tungsten mining, with total mining quotas gradually increasing but remaining limited, which contributes to a tight supply situation [21][27]. - The production cost of tungsten concentrates is expected to rise significantly, with estimates indicating costs could exceed 130,000 yuan per ton by 2024 [27][29]. Price Outlook - The price of tungsten is supported by strong cost factors, with production costs currently ranging from 96,000 to 107,000 yuan per ton, and expected to maintain upward pressure due to increasing mining costs and regulatory constraints [27][29]. - The global tungsten market is anticipated to experience price increases driven by supply constraints and rising demand from various industrial applications [2][3]. Industry Development Trends - The tungsten industry is expected to see continued growth in hard alloy production, with domestic production increasing from 33,800 tons in 2018 to an estimated 58,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% [37]. - The demand for tungsten wire, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, is projected to grow rapidly as it replaces traditional carbon steel wire due to its superior properties [53][54].