“降息100个基点”！特朗普再次施压

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's potential response, highlighting that inflation pressures may not yet fully reflect the effects of recent tariff policies [1][3][6]. Inflation Data - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above April's four-year low of 2.3%, and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.2% [3]. - Energy prices fell by 1% month-on-month and decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while food prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, driven by strong increases in grain and baked goods [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 2.8% for the third consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, better than the expected 0.2% [3]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered slow to materialize, as many retailers had accumulated inventory before the tariffs took effect [4][5]. - The uncertainty in demand may lead some companies to hesitate in raising prices, despite the anticipated effects of tariffs [5]. - In May, commodity inflation remained flat month-on-month, contrary to expectations of tariff impacts, with declines in prices for used cars, new cars, and clothing [3][5]. Federal Reserve's Position - The May CPI report is the first compiled after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and while the risk of recession has decreased, uncertainty remains regarding the Federal Reserve's actions [7][8]. - President Trump has called for a 100 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, citing the latest inflation data as favorable [7]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may hold off on rate cuts until there is greater certainty regarding the impact of trade policies on the economy and inflation [8].