Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for rising prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat due to supply shocks, while also indicating that unless adverse weather occurs, prices are more likely to decline than increase towards the end of the year [3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Predictions - If the growing season for corn is favorable, it is unlikely that any factors will prevent the downward trend of crude oil prices from affecting grain prices by 2025 [3]. - Corn prices may drop below $4 per bushel, rather than remaining above $5, due to increased supply elasticity and historical price trends [4][5]. - The market anticipates a corn yield of approximately 181 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to a five-year average of about 178 bushels per acre, with planting area expected to increase by about 6% to approximately 95 million acres [4]. Group 2: Historical Comparisons and Current Market Conditions - The pressure on soybean and grain prices may resemble the situation in the first half of 2018, where prices peaked until 2020 [9]. - Brazil's soybean exports have reached a record high of approximately 117 million tons, a 50% increase compared to 2018, significantly surpassing U.S. soybean exports [9]. - The number of open futures contracts for grains has surged to record levels in 2025, similar to conditions seen seven years prior [9][10]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Grain Prices - The Bloomberg Commodity Index for grains is facing multiple pressures, including oversupply from South America, declining demand from China, and falling crude oil prices [12]. - The likelihood of a supply shock in corn-producing areas is considered low, with the expectation of continued downward pressure on prices due to excess oil and liquid fuel trends [12][13]. - Legislative support for biofuel demand or exports could potentially help boost grain prices if adverse weather does not occur [12].
聚焦全球能源 | 6月农产品展望:跟随原油走低
彭博Bloomberg·2025-06-12 03:40