格隆汇APP·2025-06-12 09:00Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is a significant investment theme this year, showing strong performance and potential for continued growth driven by macroeconomic improvements, supportive policies, and the realization of commercial profits [1][3][33]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) has risen by approximately 60% this year, indicating a strong recovery in the pharmaceutical sector after four years of downturn [3]. - Despite a recent pullback, the innovative drug sector continues to dominate the ETF performance rankings, with the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF increasing by 4.18% and the Sci-Tech Pharmaceutical ETF (588130) by 2.21% [2][3]. Group 2: Drivers of Strength - Two main reasons for the strength of innovative drugs are the improving macroeconomic environment and favorable policy developments [4][5]. - The U.S. CPI in May was lower than expected, leading to increased market expectations for a potential 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would benefit the valuation of innovative drug stocks [4]. - Recent policy initiatives, such as the improvement of basic medical insurance drug lists and the establishment of bio-manufacturing platforms, further support the innovative drug sector [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector has outperformed many other popular sectors over the past six months, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6]. - The concept of "turning points" is crucial, encompassing macroeconomic, industry, and company fundamentals, as well as valuation aspects [9][10]. - The current PE ratio of the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index is 27.64, suggesting that there is still room for valuation recovery as it remains below 90% of the historical range over the past decade [11]. Group 4: Growth Opportunities - The approval of multiple innovative drugs by the National Medical Products Administration, including 11 new drugs on May 29, highlights the growing pipeline and market potential for innovative drug companies [11][12]. - Successful international collaborations and the recognition of domestic innovative drugs at global events like the ASCO conference demonstrate the competitive strength of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [11][12]. Group 5: Liquidity and Investment Trends - The influx of foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, with 27 IPOs and 15 involving foreign cornerstone investors this year, indicates a reversal in sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks [19][20]. - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong has significantly increased, reflecting heightened liquidity that benefits the innovative drug sector [25][27]. - Morgan Stanley projects continued high trading activity in Hong Kong, driven by increased A+H listings and potential capital inflows due to favorable monetary conditions [28]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is positioned for sustained growth, supported by a combination of policy, profitability, and internationalization [33]. - The current growth cycle is distinct due to the macroeconomic recovery, industry revaluation, and increased liquidity, leading to stronger-than-expected performance [35][36]. - However, not all companies will benefit equally, and only those with clinical value and commercialization capabilities are likely to thrive in the long term [37].