13个精算师·2025-06-10 06:33Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and future of the bancassurance channel in China, highlighting its historical development, current trends, and anticipated changes due to regulatory shifts and market dynamics. Group 1: Historical Development of Bancassurance - The bancassurance business in China began in 1996, with significant growth observed from 2001 onwards, where total premiums reached 47 billion, accounting for about 2% of total life insurance premiums [6][8]. - By 2007, new premiums from bancassurance surpassed those from all other channels combined, and from 2013 to 2016, bancassurance accounted for approximately 50% of the total life insurance premium market [6][8]. - The article outlines six stages of development for bancassurance, with a new phase starting in 2024 characterized by "reporting and operation integration" [5][20]. Group 2: Key Growth Phases - The initial phase (before 2004) saw bancassurance primarily offering five-year single premium products, with total premiums reaching 388 billion in 2002, representing 17% of the life insurance market [8][9]. - From 2005 to 2012, the industry experienced normal growth, with total premiums increasing from 952 billion in 2005 to 3,897 billion in 2012, while the period saw a significant rise in single premium products [9][10]. - The investment-driven era from 2013 to 2016 was marked by regulatory changes that allowed for higher investment returns, leading to a surge in single premium sales, with some companies reporting over 200% growth in 2013 [11][12]. Group 3: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - From 2020 to 2023, the market shifted towards traditional increasing death benefit products, with long-term premiums growing significantly, accounting for 84% of total premiums by 2021 [14][19]. - The bancassurance channel is expected to see its new business value (NBV) surpass that of individual insurance channels by 2026, driven by lower fixed costs and increased competition [20][21]. - The article predicts that by 2024, the market will witness a resurgence of short-term products, with a projected 10% share of total premiums, as companies adapt to regulatory changes and market demands [20][24]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The article categorizes life insurance companies into six groups, including the "Bancassurance Seven Heroes" and "Eight Kings," which dominate the market with a combined market share of 60% to 72% [16][43]. - In 2023, the bancassurance channel's competition intensified, with significant growth reported among leading companies, while smaller firms faced declines [25][30]. - The shift towards long-term participating insurance products is evident, with major players like Taiping Life and several foreign companies leading the charge in this segment [26][30].