降息变数！美两大数据发布，美元跳水、黄金拉升！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of U.S. prices and high unemployment rates, leading to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by 0.1% month-over-month, which was below the market expectation of 0.2%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1%, lower than the anticipated 0.3% [5]. - Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1% after two months of decline, while energy prices remained stable. Prices for unprocessed products have decreased for three consecutive months [6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier indicated that inflation has remained moderate for four consecutive months [7]. Group 2: Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 remained high at 248,000, exceeding the market expectation of 240,000. Continuing claims reached their highest level since the end of 2021 at 1.956 million, indicating prolonged job search times for unemployed individuals [8]. - The increase in continuing claims coincides with a slowdown in hiring, suggesting that unemployed individuals are facing difficulties in finding new jobs [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of economic data, U.S. stock indices opened slightly lower but then rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 42,870.39, the Nasdaq at 19,641.85, and the S&P 500 at 6,035.19 [2]. - Gold prices surged over 1.3%, approaching $3,400 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level in over three years [2]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Investors are speculating on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 61% probability of a cut in September and a 78% chance of two or more cuts by December [10]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is heavily influenced by key price and employment data, with the next interest rate decision scheduled for June 19 [10].