Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent financial data released by the People's Bank of China, indicating a significant increase in social financing and loans, alongside a stable growth in broad money supply (M2) despite a slight month-on-month decline [1][2]. Financial Data Summary - In May, the incremental social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with new RMB loans amounting to 620 billion yuan [1][3]. - As of the end of May, the year-on-year growth of broad money (M2) was 7.9%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. Government and Corporate Debt Impact - The growth in social financing was primarily driven by government and corporate bonds, with net financing from government bonds reaching 1.46 trillion yuan in May [3][4]. - The issuance of new special bonds by local governments hit a record high of 443.2 billion yuan in May, indicating strong demand in key sectors like real estate [3][4]. Loan Demand and Structure - Despite a year-on-year decline in new RMB loans, the total RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, reflecting stable loan demand [5][6]. - In May, corporate sector loans accounted for nearly 530 billion yuan, supported by recent interest rate cuts and favorable external trade conditions [6][7]. Alternative Financing Trends - The increasing issuance of government and corporate bonds has created a substitution effect for loans, with bonds and loans together accounting for nearly 90% of social financing [8][9]. - The shift towards direct financing through bonds is seen as beneficial for high-growth sectors, aligning with the ongoing economic transformation [9]. Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancies - In May, new RMB deposits surged to 2.18 trillion yuan, contrasting with the decline in new loans, attributed to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [11][12]. - The article notes that the growth of deposits and loans may not always align due to various influencing factors, including the rise of wealth management products and market conditions [12][13]. Increase in "Active Money" - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in "active money" which reflects improved market confidence and a potential uptick in economic activities [14][15].
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券商中国·2025-06-13 09:05