金价高企，行业龙头营业额却下滑了

Core Viewpoint - The high gold prices have negatively impacted consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, leading to a decline in sales for major jewelry companies, as evidenced by Chow Tai Fook's 17.5% year-on-year drop in revenue for the fiscal year 2025 [1][5][7]. Group 1: Impact of High Gold Prices - The high gold prices have resulted in a general decline in revenue for major jewelry companies, with Chow Tai Fook reporting a 17.5% decrease in revenue to HKD 89.656 billion for the fiscal year 2025 [5]. - Other major companies have also experienced revenue declines, such as Lao Feng Xiang, which saw a 20.5% drop in revenue for 2024 and a 31.64% decline in the first quarter of 2025 [8]. - China Gold reported a 39.71% decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2025, indicating a broader trend of declining sales in the industry [9]. - The China Gold Association reported a 24.69% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry consumption in 2024, reflecting reduced consumer interest due to high gold prices [10]. Group 2: Resilience of the Industry - Despite the challenges posed by high gold prices, major companies have maintained stable operations, showcasing the industry's resilience [2][12]. - Chow Tai Fook's operating profit increased by 9.8% in fiscal year 2025, demonstrating operational strength despite revenue declines [13]. - The company improved its product mix and maintained a high operating profit margin of 16.4%, with a return on equity of 21.9%, surpassing the historical average of 18.4% [13]. - Chow Tai Fook's new pricing strategy for gold products saw a remarkable 105.5% increase in revenue, indicating successful product innovation [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Recent trends indicate a potential new upward movement in gold prices, driven by factors such as U.S. inflation data and geopolitical tensions [18]. - Analysts suggest that gold remains in a bull market cycle, with expectations of continued support for gold prices due to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical risks [19]. - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases and the impact of geopolitical conflicts are expected to enhance the strategic importance of gold in investment portfolios [3][19].