新兴国央行增持黄金，中国连续7个月净买入

Core Viewpoint - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold as a safe asset, with predictions for gold prices to range between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in the second half of the year, potentially rising to $3,900 if trade tensions escalate and global economic uncertainty increases [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Emerging market central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with China's gold holdings doubling in the past three years to 6.7% of its foreign exchange reserves [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a net purchase of approximately 1.9 tons of gold in May, marking seven consecutive months of net buying, bringing its total reserves to about 2,296 tons, which is 2.7 times that of Japan's central bank [1][3]. - Poland's central bank aims for gold to constitute 20% of its foreign exchange reserves and has already surpassed this target in early 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Trends - The average gold reserve ratio among central banks globally is 22.2%, with many considering a target of 20% [3][4]. - Gold prices are currently high, with the New York futures market reaching over $3,500 per ounce, and predictions suggest prices could remain between $3,100 and $3,500, with a possibility of exceeding historical highs if economic conditions worsen [4][5]. - JPMorgan forecasts an average gold price of $3,675 for the last quarter of 2025, reflecting a positive outlook due to sustained high levels of central bank purchases [5].