鑫椤锂电·2025-06-16 01:45Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly impact the cobalt market, leading to supply shortages and potential price increases, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt seeing substantial stock price gains as a result [1][2]. Supply and Demand Overview - DRC's cobalt production in 2024 is projected at 220,000 tons, accounting for 75.9% of global supply, with a monthly export of 18,000 tons. If the export ban is extended to six months, it could reduce exports by 108,000 tons, which is equivalent to 84% of China's cobalt demand for 2024 [1]. - China's cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 38% to 104,000 tons, while demand will slightly increase by 2.3% to 131,000 tons, resulting in a shift from a surplus of 42,000 tons to a shortage of 27,000 tons [1]. Industry Chain Impact - Upstream Mining: Non-DRC production is becoming a scarce asset. Huayou Cobalt's Indonesian capacity of 30,000 tons is expected to generate 5 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, despite being 10% more expensive than DRC production [2]. - Midstream Smelting: Companies like Greeenmei and Zhongwei Co. are adapting their raw material sources to reduce costs and mitigate risks associated with DRC's export policies [3]. - Downstream Demand: The electric vehicle sector is increasing cobalt procurement by 50% year-on-year, while the 3C battery sector is expected to see an 8% increase in cobalt demand, indicating differing responses to market conditions [4]. Investment Landscape - Focus on non-DRC production and recycling sectors is recommended. Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources are positioned to benefit from reduced export risks, while recycling firms like Greenmei are expected to see a 120% increase in cobalt recovery by 2025 [5][6]. - The performance elasticity of companies is linked to their ability to increase non-DRC production, with a 10% increase in Indonesian capacity potentially raising profit margins by 3-5% [6]. Conclusion - The cobalt market is experiencing a short-term supply contraction due to administrative interventions, with a dual strategy recommended for investors: short-term trading opportunities in non-DRC production and long-term investments in cobalt recycling and low-cobalt battery technologies [7].