从机票到客房，美国旅游消费萎缩敲响经济警钟

Core Viewpoint - Recent signs indicate that American consumers are abandoning travel plans to save expenses, which may serve as an early warning signal of a broader economic slowdown in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Travel Consumption Trends - According to TS Lombard's analysis of TSA data, U.S. airport passenger throughput has declined year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, indicating a negative growth in air traffic [1] - American Airlines and Delta Airlines have seen stock declines of 22.46% and 20.37% respectively, while American Airlines and JetBlue have dropped by 39% and over 40% [4] - In May, U.S. airline travel spending fell by 11% year-on-year, with accommodation spending down approximately 2.5% and air travel spending down 6% [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined since the beginning of the year, with spending on travel accommodations and air travel lower across all income groups compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The low-income group has shown a significant reduction in travel spending, particularly after the announcement of large tariffs by President Trump [3] - High-income groups are also tightening their wallets, with a 7 percentage point drop in air travel spending growth for those earning over $150,000 [3] Group 3: Impact on Airlines and Hotels - Major airlines have withdrawn their full-year earnings forecasts for 2025 due to economic uncertainty affecting demand [4] - Hotel groups like Marriott and Hyatt have revised their 2025 profit expectations downward, with Wyndham reducing its RevPAR growth forecast from 2%-3% to -2%-1% [4] - The current environment is expected to test key metrics in the hotel industry, such as occupancy rates and average daily rates [4] Group 4: International Travel and Perception - A report from Oxford Economics predicts a 9% decline in international visitors to the U.S. this year, resulting in an estimated $8.5 billion reduction in spending [7] - Negative perceptions of U.S. trade and immigration policies are contributing to a decrease in international tourist arrivals, particularly from France and Germany [7] - American tourists are also planning fewer long-haul trips abroad, with a 7% decrease in those planning to travel to Europe this summer [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook and Consumer Spending - The increase in tariffs is expected to significantly lower U.S. economic growth rates in 2025, impacting consumer purchasing power and stock markets [8] - Rising inflation and slowing job growth may lead to a decline in real wage growth below 1% by the end of the year, making it difficult for consumers to maintain current spending levels [8] - The depletion of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic has returned bank deposits to 2019 levels, indicating a potential strain on consumer spending [8]