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“超级央行周”再度来袭!美联储按兵不动?
第一财经·2025-06-16 10:05

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and upcoming central bank decisions, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank, highlighting the potential for divergent monetary policies globally [1][4]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the upcoming decision, with a 99% probability of no change, and the earliest potential rate cut anticipated in September [4]. - Recent economic data shows signs of a cooling labor market and declining inflation, reducing the likelihood of a severe stagflation scenario [4]. - Concerns remain regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [4][5]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged, with a focus on forward guidance amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [7][8]. - A significant portion of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will slow its bond purchase reduction starting in April 2026, reflecting concerns over rising government debt costs [9][10]. - The Japanese government has issued warnings about rising bond yields and the need for domestic ownership of government bonds to avoid supply-demand imbalances [8]. Swiss National Bank - The Swiss National Bank's upcoming decision is under scrutiny, with a 69% chance of reducing the key interest rate from 0.25% to 0% and a 31% chance of moving to -0.25% [11]. - The Swiss economy faces deflationary pressures due to a strong Swiss franc, which has appreciated over 10% against the dollar this year, leading to a negative CPI for the first time since the pandemic [11][12]. - The strong franc's impact on import prices is a significant concern for the Swiss National Bank, potentially forcing it to take action to address inflation [12]. Bank of England - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 4.25%, despite concerns in the labor market and ongoing inflation considerations [12][13]. - Market predictions suggest that the Bank of England may follow the Fed's path, with potential rate cuts expected later in the year [13][14].