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彻底取消计划生育,什么信号?
凤凰网财经·2025-06-16 15:09

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Vietnam has officially abolished its long-standing family planning policy, allowing couples to decide on their own fertility choices, which reflects a global trend towards encouraging higher birth rates [1][2][3] - Vietnam's population has surpassed 100 million as of 2023, making it one of the few countries with such a large population, which is significant on a global scale [4][7] - The total fertility rate in Vietnam has drastically declined from 4-5 in the 1980s to 1.91, falling below the replacement level of 2.1, indicating a severe demographic challenge [11][14][18] Group 2 - The decline in birth rates is attributed to modernization, urbanization, and changing cultural values, which have diminished traditional views on childbearing [19][20] - The rising costs of living, particularly housing, have made it increasingly difficult for young people to prioritize marriage and childbirth, with property prices in major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City soaring [23][27] - The article emphasizes that simply lifting the family planning policy will not resolve the underlying issues contributing to the demographic crisis [29] Group 3 - Vietnam is at risk of missing its demographic dividend, as the window for benefiting from a young labor force is closing rapidly, with projections indicating a population decline by 2054 [17][30] - The article draws parallels with other countries that have experienced demographic challenges, highlighting that having a large population does not guarantee economic benefits [32][33] - The emergence of new technological challenges, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence, poses additional risks to Vietnam's economic prospects and labor market [37][38]