特朗普突然“放行”日铁收购美钢，有何内情？

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel has been conditionally approved by the Trump administration, marking a significant development in U.S.-Japan steel industry cooperation, despite ongoing concerns regarding national security and the implications for future investments by Japanese companies in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Approval - Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel received conditional approval after President Trump signed an executive order, indicating that the national security threat posed by the acquisition could be sufficiently mitigated [1]. - The approval is contingent upon Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel signing a National Security Agreement (NSA) with the U.S. government, which includes commitments to governance structures and operational assurances [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The partnership is expected to bring unprecedented investment to the U.S. steel industry, potentially creating and protecting over 100,000 jobs [4]. - Nippon Steel plans to invest approximately $11 billion in the U.S. by 2028, which raises concerns about the company's future profitability given that this investment represents nearly all of its projected operating profit of $1.4 billion for the 2025 fiscal year [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The lack of clarity regarding what constitutes "national security" poses a challenge for future Japanese investments in the U.S. market, as similar acquisitions may face scrutiny [2]. - Historical context indicates that previous Japanese investments in the U.S. steel sector have not yielded successful outcomes, raising questions about the viability of Nippon Steel's strategy [5]. - The ongoing trade tensions, including potential increases in tariffs on imported steel, add another layer of uncertainty for Japanese companies operating in the U.S. [8][9]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Current trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. have not made significant progress, with Japan facing substantial tariffs on steel and automobiles, which could impact its economic growth [9]. - The Japanese government is actively seeking to negotiate a favorable agreement with the U.S. to alleviate the burden of these tariffs, which are projected to result in significant profit losses for Japanese companies [9].