避险属性失色？日元“进退两难”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on international oil prices and the subsequent effects on the USD/JPY exchange rate, highlighting the complexities in market reactions to these events [1][5]. Group 1: USD/JPY Exchange Rate Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, maintaining a strong short-term technical structure above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the BOJ signals a prolonged period of monetary easing, the yen may weaken further [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive effect on the yen [5]. - The correlation between the USD and oil prices remains strong, while the yen's safe-haven status is diminishing amid a recovery in market risk appetite [5]. - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections in July may introduce fiscal uncertainties, contributing to a structural outflow of capital from Japan [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Predictions - A report from a financial group indicates that if the USD/JPY cannot break through the resistance level of 144.83 to 145.59, it may face technical adjustment pressures, with support levels at 143.80 and 143.20 [6]. - Should the USD/JPY break above 145.55, there is potential for the exchange rate to rise to the 146 to 148 range [6]. - Analysts predict that the USD/JPY could reach as high as 155 by the end of the year due to ongoing structural capital outflows and political uncertainties [5].