大兼并时代：中国汽车产业内卷终局推演

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending wave of mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese automotive industry, driven by the challenges of "scale diseconomies" and the need for asset restructuring to improve efficiency and profitability [6][24][42]. Group 1: Current Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is facing deep-rooted issues that cannot be resolved merely by shortening payment terms, as this does not address the underlying competitive pressures [5]. - The concept of "scale diseconomies" is prevalent among Chinese car manufacturers, where despite high sales volumes, the efficiency of asset utilization has declined, leading to asset depreciation [14][22]. - The overall gross margin for A-share listed manufacturers reached 15.6% in 2024, the highest in nearly a decade, yet asset turnover ratios have not improved correspondingly, indicating inefficiencies [15][17]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions as a Solution - The article posits that the automotive industry is on the brink of a significant merger wave, as companies seek to address the inefficiencies in their asset structures [24][42]. - Historical examples from Europe and Japan illustrate how mergers and acquisitions have been effective in restructuring and optimizing asset utilization in the automotive sector [31][32]. - The current economic depreciation rate for the automotive industry is estimated at 0.335, indicating that the conditions are ripe for a merger wave, as companies with lower depreciation rates can offer higher valuations [41][42].