德康农牧股价“狂飙”之谜：养殖成本优势VS行业微利常态

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in the stock price of Decon Agriculture, which has outperformed the overall industry despite a continuous decline in pig prices and narrowing breeding profits. The key to competition in the pig farming industry is cost reduction, and the industry may remain in a state of micro-profitability [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Decon Agriculture's stock price surged over 260% this year, reaching a high of 96 HKD per share, marking a 269% increase from its low point earlier in the year [2][7]. - As of June 16, the stock closed at 88.4 HKD per share, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 224% [2][5]. - The company has shown a remarkable recovery, with a projected revenue of approximately 22.463 billion RMB for 2024, a 39% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of about 4.102 billion RMB, reversing a loss of 1.775 billion RMB in 2023 [7][8]. Group 2: Industry Context - The pig farming industry is currently facing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices, which fell to around 14 RMB per kilogram [5][13]. - The average price of live pigs and pork has decreased by 18.56% and 9.95% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a challenging market environment [13]. - Despite the overall profitability in pig farming, profits are shrinking, and cost control has become crucial for companies to maintain profitability [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Decon Agriculture has implemented an innovative "company + sow breeding and fattening farm" model, which enhances asset-light operations and improves disease control, establishing a solid foundation for growth [10]. - The company has a competitive edge with a projected net profit of 350-370 RMB per pig, significantly higher than the industry average of 161 RMB for scattered farming and 302 RMB for large-scale farming [10]. - Analysts expect Decon Agriculture's breeding costs to continue to decline, providing substantial room for valuation recovery [8][9].