【首席观察】“影子美联储”的真相

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, as significant players in the global financial system, potentially acting as a "shadow Federal Reserve" that influences global interest rates and maintains the dollar's dominance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC, went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day. However, a significant sell-off by executives led to an 8% drop in stock price shortly after [2]. - Major payment companies like Visa and Mastercard are accelerating their integration of stablecoin settlements, while Walmart is testing enterprise stablecoins to validate their commercial viability [3]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Stablecoins are becoming crucial players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating that they will purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024, comparable to large money market funds [6]. - The influx of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease in 3-month U.S. Treasury yields by 2-2.5 basis points, while an equivalent outflow can increase yields by 6-8 basis points [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Implications - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses risks, such as potential runs on the currency, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and overall market stability [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns that unregulated stablecoins could bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [11]. Group 4: Global Trends and Future Outlook - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of this market, indicating a shift from being mere digital dollar substitutes to becoming on-chain safe-haven and settlement assets [10]. - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policy framework aims to support innovation while maintaining the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins and issuers [12]. - Countries like the UK, Australia, and South Korea are moving towards developing stablecoin regulations, indicating a shift from whether to develop stablecoins to how to do so [13].