全球棉花新一轮大增产？新花上市棉价或承压，棉纺业加速洗牌

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].