黄金，击败美元还有多远？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trend of dollar short-selling among Wall Street professionals, indicating a broader concern about the long-term decline of the dollar and the rise of gold as a preferred reserve asset [1][2][3]. Group 1: Dollar Decline - A record number of professional traders are shorting the dollar, raising questions about whether this decline is a temporary event or indicative of deeper issues [2]. - The decline of the dollar is viewed as a long-term process that accelerated after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, leading to a trend of de-dollarization among countries fearing SWIFT sanctions [3]. Group 2: Rise of Gold - Interestingly, the biggest beneficiary of the dollar's decline appears to be gold, rather than other fiat currencies, as its share in global reserves has increased significantly [4]. - From the third quarter of 2023, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell below 50%, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points, while gold's share rose by 7.9 percentage points to 23.3% [6]. - This trend is supported by a report from the European Central Bank, which indicates that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, with a projected share of 20% by 2024 [10]. Group 3: Future Projections - If the current trends of gold accumulation and de-dollarization continue, it is anticipated that gold could surpass the dollar as the world's preferred reserve asset by around 2030 [12]. - The article notes the irony of a return to gold as a reserve currency, contrasting it with the abandonment of the gold standard in the early 1970s [12].