【安泰科】多晶硅周评—产出预期上调 价格再度下跌（2025年6月18日）

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon has decreased this week, with significant drops in both n-type and p-type polysilicon prices, indicating a challenging market environment for polysilicon producers and potential implications for the solar industry [1] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type feedstock is between 320,000 to 350,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 344,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 6.27% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 330,000 to 340,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 335,000 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.90% [1] - There have been no bulk transactions for p-type polysilicon [1] Market Dynamics - Following the photovoltaic exhibition, the number of polysilicon orders has decreased, leading to further price declines [1] - Major manufacturers are struggling to make sales due to extremely low downstream pricing, resulting in significant price pressure [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to several factors: - A rapid drop in the selling prices of downstream silicon wafer products, leading to expectations of lower raw material prices [1] - Downstream companies have accumulated a certain amount of silicon material inventory, causing significant price pressure on new orders [1] - Polysilicon producers are forced to sell at lower prices to maintain cash flow, which has established a psychological price level for downstream companies that is difficult to exceed [1] Production Capacity - Currently, there are 11 polysilicon producers in operation, all of which are functioning at reduced capacity [1] - Some polysilicon production capacity is expected to resume this month, leading to an anticipated production increase of approximately 8% month-on-month in June [1]