【转|太平洋食饮-消费深度】拥抱新消费的浪潮

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic demand as a long-term strategy for economic growth, especially in light of reduced export contributions due to trade tensions [2][4] - It highlights the ongoing consumer policy initiatives aimed at stimulating spending and increasing household income, which are expected to positively impact consumption ratios in the coming years [4][6] - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation in China and Japan's economic history, particularly the similarities in aging populations and real estate market challenges [8][12] Group 1: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand is becoming the main driver of economic growth as export contributions decline, with household consumption currently accounting for 38-40% of GDP, significantly lower than in developed countries [2][4] - Recent consumer policies, including subsidies and consumption vouchers, are expected to enhance household income and stimulate spending, with a projected increase in consumer spending in 2025 [4][6] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a 4.6% year-on-year increase in retail sales, indicating a stable upward trend in consumption [4] Group 2: Economic Comparisons with Japan - The article compares China's current economic conditions to Japan's in the late 1990s, noting similar GDP per capita levels and aging demographics [8][12] - Both countries have experienced real estate market downturns, with China implementing policies to stabilize housing prices and Japan facing a prolonged economic slump after its real estate bubble burst [8][12] - The analysis suggests that understanding Japan's economic history could provide valuable insights for China's future economic strategies [8][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards value-oriented and health-conscious products, with brands like Sam's Club and Dazhong increasingly appealing to consumers seeking quality at competitive prices [34][39] - The rise of discount retailers and the focus on high-cost performance products reflect a broader trend of rational consumption among consumers, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty [19][25] - The article highlights the growing importance of local brands and products that cater to domestic tastes, as consumers show a preference for homegrown options over foreign imports [31][20]