日本，传出重大利空！

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy, indicating a significant decline in exports and a growing trade deficit, raising concerns about a potential technical recession in Japan. Group 1: Export and Trade Data - In May, Japan's exports fell by 1.7% year-on-year, marking the first decline in eight months, with exports to the U.S. down by 11.1% and to China down by 8.8% [1][5][6] - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 637.6 billion yen in May, continuing a trend of deficits for the second consecutive month [2][5] - The decline in exports was primarily driven by decreases in automotive, steel, and mineral fuel exports [5] Group 2: Economic Concerns - The drop in exports and the widening trade deficit have intensified fears of a second-quarter economic contraction, potentially leading to a technical recession [6] - Japan's economy had already shown signs of contraction in the first quarter, with a 0.2% year-on-year decline in GDP [11] - Domestic consumption remains weak due to inflation outpacing wage growth, further complicating economic recovery [6] Group 3: Tariff Implications - U.S. tariffs, including a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts and a 10% tariff on other Japanese goods, are exerting pressure on Japan's export-driven economy [7][11] - Japan's government is urgently seeking a trade agreement with the U.S. to avoid a potential increase in tariffs to 24% starting July 9 [8][11] Group 4: Central Bank Response - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy amid the uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs [9][10] - The central bank has kept its target interest rate at 0.5% and plans to continue its bond purchase reduction strategy until March 2026 [11][12] - Future policy decisions by the Bank of Japan will likely depend on inflation trends, global economic conditions, and U.S. Federal Reserve policies [12]