加拿大菜籽期货在中国关税下仍涨至1年半高点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Canada imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and China's retaliatory 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and canola meal, leading to fluctuations in canola prices and export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Price Fluctuations - Canada has implemented a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, prompting China to respond with a similar tariff on Canadian canola oil and canola meal starting March 2025 [1]. - Despite initial concerns about a significant drop in Canadian canola exports due to the tariffs, the actual decline has been less than expected, with prices rebounding sharply [1]. - As of May 27, 2023, Canadian canola futures reached CAD 733.5 per ton, marking a 34% increase from the recent low of CAD 546.5 per ton on March 14, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Export and Crushing Volume Trends - The forecast for Canadian canola exports from August 2024 to July 2025 indicates a 27% increase compared to the previous year, reaching 8.5 million tons [2]. - Actual exports as of June 1, 2023, have already met the forecasted volume of 8.5 million tons, exceeding expectations [2]. - Domestic crushing capacity in Canada is also on the rise, with projections for 2024-2025 reaching a record high of 11.5 million tons due to stable demand for canola oil and meal [2]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Many analysts believe that canola prices will remain high due to tight supply and demand dynamics [3]. - Market experts suggest that if the trend of position adjustments does not expand and soybean prices do not decline, current canola prices may stabilize around CAD 700 [3]. - Continuous price increases for canola oil used in salad dressings have been observed, with manufacturers negotiating further price hikes in the upcoming months [3].