6万亿美元天量期权到期？美股今晚或迎史上最大规模“三巫日”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" in the U.S. stock market is expected to be unprecedented in scale, with potential options expiring worth up to $6.5 trillion, which could lead to significant market volatility [1][6]. Group 1: Scale of Options Expiration - The latest "Triple Witching Day" is projected to see over $6 trillion in index, stock, and ETF options expiring, marking it as potentially the largest in history [2]. - Citigroup estimates that $5.8 trillion in notional value of open positions will expire, including $4.2 trillion in index options, $708 billion in ETF options, and $819 billion in individual stock options [2]. - Goldman Sachs' derivatives expert estimates that over $5.9 trillion in notional options exposure will expire, including $4 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $925 billion in individual stock options [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Dynamics - The expiration of options may lead to a "pinning effect," where stock prices tend to close near the strike prices of actively traded options as the expiration date approaches [7]. - The S&P 500 index is currently close to the 6000-point mark, which is a significant psychological level for traders, influencing their options strategies [8]. - The concentration of S&P 500 options expiration around key round numbers like 6000 could lead to substantial market impacts as market makers hedge their positions [9]. Group 3: Unique Circumstances of This Triple Witching Day - This "Triple Witching Day" is unique as it follows a market holiday, which has not occurred since at least 2000, adding complexity to market participants' strategies [10]. - The combination of a holiday and a high-volume expiration day may lead to unusual volatility, as trading volumes could be lower due to participants taking extended weekends [10]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, have contributed to increased market volatility, pushing the VIX index above 20, which may affect options pricing [10][11].