创新药集体上涨的追本溯源，是一波流还是可持续行情？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the innovative drug market is driven by three main factors: policy support, improved liquidity, and positive performance indicators [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Support - The implementation of the "Full Chain Support for Innovative Drug Development" plan in 2024 establishes a systematic support framework for the innovative drug industry, emphasizing the collaboration of pricing mechanisms, medical insurance payments, and commercial insurance [1] - The acceleration of the inclusion of innovative drugs into the medical insurance list and the establishment of a fast track for negotiations significantly shorten the post-launch volume cycle [1] - Continuous promotion of priority review and approval policies has led to record approvals, with 11 innovative drugs approved in a single day on May 29, marking a five-year high for the same period [1] Group 2: Improved Liquidity - After enduring difficult times, innovative drug companies are now entering a harvest season, aided by the anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. in 2024, which will facilitate financing and reduce costs [2] - Many companies that faced cash flow issues between 2019 and 2021 are now achieving milestone results in drug development [2] - By 2025, China's innovative drugs are expected to enter a "golden period" for overseas expansion, with transaction amounts and numbers reaching historical highs [2] Group 3: Performance Indicators - Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcased impressive performances at the ASCO conference, contributing 73 oral presentations, with 11 selected for "Latest Breakthrough Abstracts," covering cutting-edge fields like tumor immunology and ADC [2] - The successful overseas strategies of innovative drug companies not only generate cash flow through upfront payments and milestone revenues but also enhance brand influence through international multi-center clinical trials [2] - The innovative drug ETF has been a market leader from the beginning of the year, reflecting the positive impact of policy, liquidity, and performance improvements [3]