全球制药业洞察 | 生物技术2025年中展望：行业拐点将至，下半年有哪三大焦点？

Core Insights - The Chinese biotechnology industry is expected to continue its recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by a resurgence in the Hong Kong IPO market and improved earnings outlook for biotech companies [3][15] - Key focus areas include the anticipated approval of new drugs, significant pipeline data releases, and increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, particularly related to the PD-1/VEGF pathways [3][15] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong IPO market is showing signs of recovery, with Hengrui's IPO raising HKD 9.8 billion, marking the largest IPO in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector in five years [15] - Investor interest in the biotechnology sector remains high, as evidenced by the successful listing of antibody-drug conjugate pioneer, InnoCare, which saw its share price double on the first trading day [15] - M&A activities are expected to surge in 2025, particularly for companies involved in the PD-1/VEGF pathway, following positive data reported at the ASCO conference [5][15] Group 2: Company Performance and Projections - Chinese biotech companies are reaching a pivotal point of profitability, with Innovent Biologics expected to turn profitable in 2024, supported by the launch of its obesity drug and positive data from IBI 363 at ASCO [6] - BeiGene achieved breakeven in Q1 and is positioned to become a major player in global oncology, although its sales growth from 2025 to 2028 is projected to be below peers [6] - Companies like Akeso and Zai Lab are also expected to achieve profitability by 2025, despite facing valuation pressures due to tariff uncertainties [6] Group 3: Pipeline Developments - Innovent's obesity drug, Mazdutide, is anticipated to launch in China in early 2025, which could attract significant investor interest [9] - BeiGene's Sonrotoclax is expected to file for approval in China for treating relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia and mantle cell lymphoma by mid-2026 [9] - Akeso is advancing multiple drugs through the pipeline, with filings for Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab expected in the second half of 2025 [10][13] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The enterprise value/sales ratios for several Chinese biotech companies indicate varying growth expectations, with Sichuan Kelun-Biotech showing a high ratio of 35.5x and a projected sales CAGR of 54% from 2025 to 2028 [8] - The average enterprise value/sales ratio for Chinese peers stands at 13.0x, with a median of 11.8x, reflecting the competitive landscape within the industry [8]