潜渊中的碳酸锂

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by a subdued atmosphere, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a downward trend in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Overview - Global lithium resource capacity is projected to reach 1.9-1.95 million tons (LCE equivalent) in 2025, with actual production around 1.6-1.65 million tons, resulting in a surplus of approximately 200,000 tons [3]. - Domestic lithium carbonate monthly demand increased to 88,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, indicating a robust demand despite external tariff disruptions [4]. - The production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively from January to May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.2% and 44% [3]. Price Trends and Cost Analysis - The average price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trajectory, with the decline rate slowing down as inventory levels decrease [4]. - Current lithium carbonate prices are near the breakeven point, prompting some lithium salt manufacturers to limit production since May, which has temporarily slowed the market's downward trend [8]. - If lithium carbonate prices drop to 50,000 yuan per ton, the corresponding lithium resource supply capacity would be around 1.2 million tons, which may not meet the demand even with existing inventories [8][10]. Market Disruptions and Future Outlook - Potential disruptions in the lithium market include environmental and geopolitical constraints affecting projects in Eastern Europe, Bolivia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The production enthusiasm for new lithium salt projects in Argentina may remain below expectations due to high profit forecasts [15]. - The acceleration of profit localization in Zimbabwe could undermine the cost advantages of African lithium mines [16]. - The market may continue to face pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but prices approaching 55,000 yuan may lead some upstream mining companies to reconsider their production strategies [18].